White Papers

Don’t Panic: The ‘R’ Word Angst
Authors: Mackenzie Bradford, Manfred Keil, and Yao Li1
14 April 2019
ABSTRACT: There has been a surprisingly large consensus among professional economists and in the financial press placing the starting date of the next recession within the next two years. Here we focus on financial leading economic indicators to gauge the probability of such an event.. The paper concludes that the evidence supporting an imminent recession is less solid than portrayed by the majority of analysts and the popular press. However, the prospect of such an event has become more worrisome recently even when compared to six months ago.

Sectoral Shifts in the U.S. Economy During and After the Great Recession
Authors: Eamon Gallagher, Bach Hoang, and Manfred Keil1
14 April 2019
ABSTRACT: The Great Recession of 2007-2009 has primarily been analyzed in terms of the depth of the recession and its length. It is also unique in terms of the weak recovery that followed. We focus instead on sectoral shifts that took place during the massive downturn and find that there has not been a similar event since the 1973 OPEC I recession. Local sectoral changes contributed significantly to the severity of unemployment rate increases at the MSA level. Future events may have similar effects as the 4th Industrial Revolution takes place. Economic policy focusing on increased levels of education should be implemented, particularly in regions that are highly threatened by technological change.